Hey, how heavy is anthropogenic impact on the Earth system? Enough to break the ice.

We have all heard about how the ice is melting and polar bears are losing their habitats, but there is a lot more to take into consideration. This post aims to look at the effects of anthropogenic emissions on permafrost and in turn how this will alter the global system indelibly.

Last year the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) produced a report on potential policies to reduce permafrost warming, an important report when the impact of permafrost is taken into account. Currently 24% of land in the Northern Hemisphere is perennially covered by permafrost, with an estimated ~1700 gigatonnes of carbon locked up in the organic matter within the ice; if this were to thaw the organic matter would decay and expel anywhere between 43 and 135 gigatonnes of CO₂ by 2100.

As one might expect, the release of this amount of greenhouse gas would cause irreversible effects to our global system. We have already committed ourselves to a global temperature rise of 3ºC by 2100 and due to the insulating ability of snow, permafrost temperatures are expected to be double this. If this is the amount of CO₂ that will be emitted from what we have already done, imagine what the future holds for us. Permafrost is an important tipping element which we are very close to reaching.

Greenhouse gas emission is not the only negative impact caused by melting permafrost. Increased erosion rates, landslides, flooding, ecosystems destruction, infrastructure collapse and economic strain are all going to occur as well. In Alaska alone $3.6-£6.1 billion will be absorbed by damages caused by permafrost melt. 

We are living on the edge - Taken from UNEP report.

The release of permafrost emissions is likely to begin in our lifetimes and continue for centuries, placing an uncertainty on human survival and that of many more species. What is worse is that there is no real solution to prevent this disaster. The UNEP report recommends a rather disheartening plan for adaptation. I think that the highest priority should be a worldwide awareness project – perhaps it will scare people into becoming part of the sustainable revolution.

A New Path

So far in my blog posts I have not really addressed the concept of human and nature harmony. While still assessing the damage we are causing and how this is being mitigated, I wish to take a new path. It is not however this path that I imply in my title; this is a greater and far more important path that must be followed by the entire human race. As Alan Watts so aptly suggests in the video above, I believe that the human race is devoted to the destruction of life. We ruin our world to gain more, when really we should appreciate what is already there. Of course it is in our nature to seek the best of both of these options – gain more and destroy less - and what I would like to explore is the possibilities of this dream.

By definition, harmony is the state of being in agreement, cooperation or unison, which I think – as some of my previous blog posts show - is not something achieved by humans thus far. Nevertheless this is not the only way; there is another path; a new path. We exist in the time of a great revolution, that of sustainability; out of necessity we must aim to harmonise with nature. Like that of the coral polyp and Zooxanthellae a symbiotic relationship with nature is right here in front of us. It is this that my blog will now focus on.

I will endeavour to tie up any topics I have already started but wish to open this topic as soon as possible; the personal importance of this topic far outweighs those I have previously started and it is with passion that I want to continue this blog.

UN-REDD: A Grand Plan to Save Our Forests

 

Created in 2008 the UN-REDD (United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is a programme aiming to help reduce emissions caused by deforestation by subjugating conservation and sustainable forest management in the major tropical forest bearing countries, that may not be able to afford this development themselves. This will not only reduce the amount of emissions being produced by deforestation, but hopefully better the forest carbon stocks too. UN-REDD is part of a greater REDD+ climate change mitigation scheme which will be looked at in future posts.

It appears that there are a lot of people, including the FAO, are backing this programme and it seems to be well prepared for the large task ahead. From reading the UN-REDD strategy, it is planned that by 2015 the programme will develop a 25% reduction in global deforestation rates, a very significant and ambitious statistic.

To implement this change, the programme needs a financial sum of US$22-38 billion which will be used to aid developing countries in creating monitoring systems to better understand their forests and also to help them to be managed in a more sustainable manner. So far Norway is leading the funding with hopes of many other countries to follow. However, the programme must be careful how they obtain their funding. Some countries may see the funding as an offset for their own emissions, but this should not mean that they do not try to reduce their own emissions too.

These are the countries benefitting from the programme (coloured blue and red)

 

This scheme seems like a great and noteworthy project, but it does also have downsides. As in most scenarios there must be a trade-off and within the UN-REDD strategy it may be that biodiversity may be at risk when forest carbon stocks are enhanced. Of course this trade-off will be carefully monitored to ensure indigenous people and rare species are not affected.

In a 2009 paper by Oestreicher et al. they look at how some environmental policies work in Panama, with the aim of discerning whether REDD could better the policies for future use. The paper mainly focusses on Protected Areas, a policy which they feel could be enhanced by proper funding, something the UN-REDD programme can provide. They also state that 'effectively reducing deforestation will rely on a mechanism that endorses a blend of different environmental policy instruments and conservation program structures that are able to adapt to local conditions while functioning under the umbrella of a publicly administered REDD scheme'. This is exactly what UN-REDD is, so hopefully the programme will work!

Be sure to check out the UN-REDD website for more information on how the programme is getting on!